Last week, I attended the Securities Industry Institute hosted by the University of Pennsylvania. The faculty and speakers were outstanding. The week was filled with thought provoking content about the current and future state of business and financial services. A recurring theme was the need for strategic agility and adaptability in a rapidly changing environment. The term VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) was consistently called out as a challenge to modern leaders. In fact, today’s business executives believe decision making is harder now than it was thirty years ago.

While I am in full agreement that adaptability is critical for success, I am a wholehearted skeptic that today’s world is more volatile than it has been before. Recency bias and a lack of historical perspective may be clouding our view of what life was like thirty, one hundred, or one thousand years ago. In an era often characterized by rapid change and uncertainty, it is essential to recognize the significant strides humanity has made towards stability and peace. Despite ongoing challenges, the world today is less volatile than at any other point in history. We need to recognize how far we have come so that we can continue the journey through our ambiguous and complex times.

An Accurate Perspective Requires Broad Historical Context

Let’s take a look at some current events which lead us to believe we live in exceptionally volatile times.

COVID vs Pre-Modern Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted our lives in ways none of us previously experienced. It was a time of great ambiguity, as no one knew the appropriate course of action. Many of us lost loved ones to the virus, which is an absolute tragedy. There have been around 7 million global COVID related deaths at the time of this writing.

At the same time, this represents only 0.1% of the global population. Compare this to the Spanish flu 100 years ago, where nearly 50 million people died, or about one out of every three people. The Black Death was even more devastating, killing half of Europe in 14th and 15th centuries. And likely the most egregious case of them all, when disease caused a near complete genocide of indigenous Americans, killing nearly 95% of all inhabitants of the Americas after 1492.

COVID was a tragedy, but collective action, information sharing and modern medicine mitigated the devastating losses humanity has experienced in the past.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine on an unprovoked basis. It was shocking to most of us to see a modern invasion of this magnitude. There has been incredible suffering by the Ukrainian people that cannot be overlooked. The free world should stand behind Ukraine and against the oppressive rule of authoritarianism.

And yet, the current suffering of the Ukrainian people pales in comparison to the past. In the 1930’s, Joseph Stalin created a famine in the Ukraine to suppress its people, creating a genocide, known as the Holodomor, of nearly 4 million Ukrainians. Compare this against just over 10,000 civilian deaths since the most recent instance of Ukraine’s invasion. Lest we forget, the Soviet Union was an initial collaborator of the Nazi’s invasion of Poland in 1939. Compare this against the near unanimous European solidarity against Russia today, which includes the conversion of a historically neutral Sweden into a NATO ally.

The lessons learned after WWII have been applied to the war in Ukraine. While it was a surprise when war actually came, diplomatic channels had already made NATO allies aware of Putin’s intentions, and the Biden administration publicly predicted the invasion weeks before it occurred. Ukrainian resistance and international cooperation thwarted Russia’s march toward Kiev. A united front against a totalitarian can bend the arc of history toward freedom.

War in the Holy Land

The attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 was a shocking and horrific attack. The ensuing Israeli invasion has been equally and even more disturbing. And while each war has its own unique causes and atrocities, this is the ninth war Israel has fought since it became an independent nation in 1948.

The unfortunate truth is that war in the Holy land is as normal as peace. This is a land occupied by the Assyrians, Babylonians, Hebrews, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Ottomans, British and Palestinians prior to the formation of modern Israel. War should always outrage us when it occurs, but this war is not a sign of the times becoming more volatile. It’s a sign volatility is part of human existence.

Gender and Racial Inequality

Recent events have highlighted the persistent and intersecting inequality women and people of color face. From George Floyd, to the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, to the ongoing border crisis, America still falls short of living up to the creeds written in the Declaration of Independence and inscribed on the Statue of Liberty.

And yet…black unemployment is at an all time low. The gender pay gap is as narrow as it ever has been. The incarceration rate has been falling over the last decade. The 118th Congress is the most diverse in history, both by gender and race. We are not yet where we need to be, but on the long march to equality, there is more road behind us than there is left to travel.

Our Progress Depends on Connection, Understanding, Democracy and Rule of Law

The ideas of the Enlightenment have created global prosperity unknown to previous generations. As leaders and individuals, we must continue to advocate for the ideas that support progress:

1. Global Connectivity: The interconnectedness facilitated by technology and globalization has created a web of economic, social, and political ties that incentivize cooperation over conflict. Nations are more reliant on each other’s stability, fostering diplomatic efforts to resolve disputes peacefully.
2. Diplomatic Channels: The proliferation of diplomatic channels and institutions, such as the United Nations and regional organizations, provides platforms for dialogue and conflict resolution. Diplomatic efforts have prevented many potential conflicts from escalating into full-scale wars.
3. Democratization: The spread of democracy around the world has led to more accountable and responsive governance structures. Democratically elected leaders are often constrained by institutions and public opinion, reducing the likelihood of authoritarian abuses and internal strife.
4. International Law and Norms: The establishment and enforcement of international laws and norms have created a framework for resolving disputes and holding aggressors accountable. Treaties and conventions on issues like human rights and armed conflict provide a common standard for behavior.
5. Economic Interdependence: The deepening economic ties between nations have created mutual interests in maintaining stability and avoiding conflict. War disrupts trade and investment, making it an unattractive option for most countries.
6. Advancements in Conflict Resolution: Innovations in conflict resolution techniques, such as mediation, arbitration, and peacekeeping operations, have been instrumental in preventing and resolving conflicts. These mechanisms provide non-violent alternatives for addressing grievances.
7. Technological Advancements: Technological advancements have improved communication, surveillance, and military capabilities, making it easier to detect and deter potential threats. Additionally, technological innovations in agriculture, healthcare, and infrastructure have lifted millions out of poverty, reducing social instability.
8. Global Governance Initiatives: Collaborative initiatives to address global challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and terrorism, demonstrate the willingness of nations to work together for the common good. Multilateral agreements and partnerships strengthen collective security and resilience.
9. Cultural Exchange and Understanding: Increased cultural exchange and understanding have fostered empathy and tolerance among diverse communities. People are more inclined to resolve differences peacefully when they recognize shared humanity and common aspirations.
10. Youth Empowerment and Education: Greater access to education and opportunities for young people empower them to participate in shaping their societies positively. Educated and engaged youth are less susceptible to extremist ideologies and more likely to advocate for peace and progress.

These concepts have created and will continue to develop a prosperous world, as long as we stay committed to listening to each other and standing up for progress.

Perhaps the greatest threat to our current state are demagogues who manipulate facts to obscure reality for their own benefit.

We are Supremely Capable of Facing the Obstacles in Front of Us

I do not mean to minimize the challenges we face today as individuals, leaders, organizations or as a society. The threat of disruption is real. We have a long bridge to build to reduce national and international political divisiveness. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are appalling. Global warming threatens to change the face of the planet. America is still not the land of opportunity and equality it aspires to be. We cannot ignore the challenges we face and we must recognize our ability to overcome them.

We must acknowledge how far we have come so we can take courage, hope and inspiration from the people who have faced and defeated even greater obstacles than these in the past. We have more tools at our disposal, more people we can call on for assistance, more resources we can deploy and more love we can share.

There are forces that actively seek to make you afraid for the purpose of preserving old power dynamics that no longer serve us. We need to proactively counter this narrative with the voices of all the prophets, sages, stoics and activists who came before, and who through their words and actions delivered this message:

Do not be afraid. Boldly take action toward improving yourself, your situation, your organization and your community. Do not be overcome by fear, but overcome evil with good. The world is changed through the small actions individuals take. Plant trees under which whose shade you will never sit under. Build a community whose results you may never reap the rewards of. Lift up the people around you, because the highest calling we have is to care for the people we live with.

These are the actions of a life well lived. I hope you live it to the fullest.