The World is Less Volatile Than Ever Before

Last week, I attended the Securities Industry Institute hosted by the University of Pennsylvania. The faculty and speakers were outstanding. The week was filled with thought provoking content about the current and future state of business and financial services. A recurring theme was the need for strategic agility and adaptability in a rapidly changing environment. The term VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) was consistently called out as a challenge to modern leaders. In fact, today’s business executives believe decision making is harder now than it was thirty years ago.

While I am in full agreement that adaptability is critical for success, I am a wholehearted skeptic that today’s world is more volatile than it has been before. Recency bias and a lack of historical perspective may be clouding our view of what life was like thirty, one hundred, or one thousand years ago. In an era often characterized by rapid change and uncertainty, it is essential to recognize the significant strides humanity has made towards stability and peace. Despite ongoing challenges, the world today is less volatile than at any other point in history. We need to recognize how far we have come so that we can continue the journey through our ambiguous and complex times.

An Accurate Perspective Requires Broad Historical Context

Let’s take a look at some current events which lead us to believe we live in exceptionally volatile times.

COVID vs Pre-Modern Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted our lives in ways none of us previously experienced. It was a time of great ambiguity, as no one knew the appropriate course of action. Many of us lost loved ones to the virus, which is an absolute tragedy. There have been around 7 million global COVID related deaths at the time of this writing.

At the same time, this represents only 0.1% of the global population. Compare this to the Spanish flu 100 years ago, where nearly 50 million people died, or about one out of every three people. The Black Death was even more devastating, killing half of Europe in 14th and 15th centuries. And likely the most egregious case of them all, when disease caused a near complete genocide of indigenous Americans, killing nearly 95% of all inhabitants of the Americas after 1492.

COVID was a tragedy, but collective action, information sharing and modern medicine mitigated the devastating losses humanity has experienced in the past.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine on an unprovoked basis. It was shocking to most of us to see a modern invasion of this magnitude. There has been incredible suffering by the Ukrainian people that cannot be overlooked. The free world should stand behind Ukraine and against the oppressive rule of authoritarianism.

And yet, the current suffering of the Ukrainian people pales in comparison to the past. In the 1930’s, Joseph Stalin created a famine in the Ukraine to suppress its people, creating a genocide, known as the Holodomor, of nearly 4 million Ukrainians. Compare this against just over 10,000 civilian deaths since the most recent instance of Ukraine’s invasion. Lest we forget, the Soviet Union was an initial collaborator of the Nazi’s invasion of Poland in 1939. Compare this against the near unanimous European solidarity against Russia today, which includes the conversion of a historically neutral Sweden into a NATO ally.

The lessons learned after WWII have been applied to the war in Ukraine. While it was a surprise when war actually came, diplomatic channels had already made NATO allies aware of Putin’s intentions, and the Biden administration publicly predicted the invasion weeks before it occurred. Ukrainian resistance and international cooperation thwarted Russia’s march toward Kiev. A united front against a totalitarian can bend the arc of history toward freedom.

War in the Holy Land

The attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 was a shocking and horrific attack. The ensuing Israeli invasion has been equally and even more disturbing. And while each war has its own unique causes and atrocities, this is the ninth war Israel has fought since it became an independent nation in 1948.

The unfortunate truth is that war in the Holy land is as normal as peace. This is a land occupied by the Assyrians, Babylonians, Hebrews, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Ottomans, British and Palestinians prior to the formation of modern Israel. War should always outrage us when it occurs, but this war is not a sign of the times becoming more volatile. It’s a sign volatility is part of human existence.

Gender and Racial Inequality

Recent events have highlighted the persistent and intersecting inequality women and people of color face. From George Floyd, to the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, to the ongoing border crisis, America still falls short of living up to the creeds written in the Declaration of Independence and inscribed on the Statue of Liberty.

And yet…black unemployment is at an all time low. The gender pay gap is as narrow as it ever has been. The incarceration rate has been falling over the last decade. The 118th Congress is the most diverse in history, both by gender and race. We are not yet where we need to be, but on the long march to equality, there is more road behind us than there is left to travel.

Our Progress Depends on Connection, Understanding, Democracy and Rule of Law

The ideas of the Enlightenment have created global prosperity unknown to previous generations. As leaders and individuals, we must continue to advocate for the ideas that support progress:

Global Connectivity: The interconnectedness facilitated by technology and globalization has created a web of economic, social, and political ties that incentivize cooperation over conflict. Nations are more reliant on each other’s stability, fostering diplomatic efforts to resolve disputes peacefully.
Diplomatic Channels: The proliferation of diplomatic channels and institutions, such as the United Nations and regional organizations, provides platforms for dialogue and conflict resolution. Diplomatic efforts have prevented many potential conflicts from escalating into full-scale wars.
Democratization: The spread of democracy around the world has led to more accountable and responsive governance structures. Democratically elected leaders are often constrained by institutions and public opinion, reducing the likelihood of authoritarian abuses and internal strife.
International Law and Norms: The establishment and enforcement of international laws and norms have created a framework for resolving disputes and holding aggressors accountable. Treaties and conventions on issues like human rights and armed conflict provide a common standard for behavior.
Economic Interdependence: The deepening economic ties between nations have created mutual interests in maintaining stability and avoiding conflict. War disrupts trade and investment, making it an unattractive option for most countries.
Advancements in Conflict Resolution: Innovations in conflict resolution techniques, such as mediation, arbitration, and peacekeeping operations, have been instrumental in preventing and resolving conflicts. These mechanisms provide non-violent alternatives for addressing grievances.
Technological Advancements: Technological advancements have improved communication, surveillance, and military capabilities, making it easier to detect and deter potential threats. Additionally, technological innovations in agriculture, healthcare, and infrastructure have lifted millions out of poverty, reducing social instability.
Global Governance Initiatives: Collaborative initiatives to address global challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, and terrorism, demonstrate the willingness of nations to work together for the common good. Multilateral agreements and partnerships strengthen collective security and resilience.
Cultural Exchange and Understanding: Increased cultural exchange and understanding have fostered empathy and tolerance among diverse communities. People are more inclined to resolve differences peacefully when they recognize shared humanity and common aspirations.
Youth Empowerment and Education: Greater access to education and opportunities for young people empower them to participate in shaping their societies positively. Educated and engaged youth are less susceptible to extremist ideologies and more likely to advocate for peace and progress.

These concepts have created and will continue to develop a prosperous world, as long as we stay committed to listening to each other and standing up for progress.

Perhaps the greatest threat to our current state are demagogues who manipulate facts to obscure reality for their own benefit.

We are Supremely Capable of Facing the Obstacles in Front of Us

I do not mean to minimize the challenges we face today as individuals, leaders, organizations or as a society. The threat of disruption is real. We have a long bridge to build to reduce national and international political divisiveness. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are appalling. Global warming threatens to change the face of the planet. America is still not the land of opportunity and equality it aspires to be. We cannot ignore the challenges we face and we must recognize our ability to overcome them.

We must acknowledge how far we have come so we can take courage, hope and inspiration from the people who have faced and defeated even greater obstacles than these in the past. We have more tools at our disposal, more people we can call on for assistance, more resources we can deploy and more love we can share.

There are forces that actively seek to make you afraid for the purpose of preserving old power dynamics that no longer serve us. We need to proactively counter this narrative with the voices of all the prophets, sages, stoics and activists who came before, and who through their words and actions delivered this message:

Do not be afraid. Boldly take action toward improving yourself, your situation, your organization and your community. Do not be overcome by fear, but overcome evil with good. The world is changed through the small actions individuals take. Plant trees under which whose shade you will never sit under. Build a community whose results you may never reap the rewards of. Lift up the people around you, because the highest calling we have is to care for the people we live with.

These are the actions of a life well lived. I hope you live it to the fullest.

March 16, 2024 0

Courageous Leadership: Giving Voice to the Unpopular Truth

Today is Martin Luther King Day, a day celebrating a giant of a leader, who in retrospect is viewed as one of the greatest Americans who ever lived. Children are taught in school about his “I Have a Dream” speech, where people will be judged not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character. What we don’t talk about is that most Americans disapproved of Dr. King at the time of his death. We popularize his dream, but ignore the societal criticisms in his “Letter from a Birmingham Jail”.

“I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate.” – Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

It is probable Dr. King would still be disappointed in the white moderate today. In fact, I am concerned he would be disappointed in all moderates who continue to allow injustice to flourish through inaction and silence. Many people are willing to make noise in safe places and behind computer screens, but few are willing to makes waves within their own sphere of influence.

There exists a delicate dance around difficult truths – the kind that elicit discomfort, challenge the status quo, and often remain unspoken. People tend to shy away from uttering these truths, whether out of fear of confrontation, a desire to maintain harmony, or simply to shield themselves from potential backlash. This avoidance, however, has consequences not only on an individual level, but also permeates into the fabric of societies and organizations.

The Anatomy of Avoidance

One primary reason people sidestep difficult truths is the fear of conflict. The human psyche tends to gravitate towards comfort and stability, making the prospect of unsettling conversations unappealing. Unpopular truths often disrupt established norms, challenge ingrained beliefs and force individuals to confront uncomfortable realities.

Moreover, the fear of social repercussions plays a significant role in this avoidance. People fear being ostracized, criticized, or even facing professional consequences for voicing opinions that deviate from the mainstream. This fear-driven silence creates a culture where superficial agreement takes precedence over authentic discourse.

The Ripple Effect on Societal Dynamics

When we collectively avoid difficult truths, our society is left grappling with unaddressed issues. Societal norms and systemic problems persist because genuine conversations about them are stifled. This reluctance to confront uncomfortable truths can lead to the perpetuation of inequality, injustice, and other deep-seated issues. This is the state we find ourselves in today.

In the absence of open dialogue about difficult truths, our society risks stagnation. Progress becomes elusive as challenges remain unacknowledged and unaddressed. The collective unwillingness to confront reality hampers societal growth and evolution. Indeed, it has been decades since we have achieved anything that amounts to real progress. We need more open conversation and direct action.

The Organizational Impact

In the organizational sphere, the consequences of avoiding difficult truths are equally profound. Teams and companies that discourage open communication about challenges or failures foster a culture of silence. This silence impedes innovation, problem-solving, and ultimately inhibits the organization’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

Employees who fear reprisals for highlighting inconvenient truths may disengage or become passive participants in the workplace. This stifles creativity and hampers the organization’s ability to navigate complex challenges. In contrast, organizations that encourage transparent communication, even when it involves uncomfortable truths, create an environment conducive to growth and improvement. The only path to sustainable success lies in confronting the difficult truth about your business.

The Courageous Leadership Paradigm

Enter the courageous leader – the catalyst for change in a landscape dominated by evasion. Leaders who possess the courage to articulate difficult and unpopular truths exhibit a rare but indispensable quality. Such leaders are not driven solely by the pursuit of popularity or short-term gains; instead, they prioritize the long-term health and success of their communities and organizations.

Courageous leaders understand that short-term discomfort is a small price to pay for the long-term benefit of transparency and growth. They recognize that avoiding difficult truths may offer temporary relief, but comes at the cost of perpetuating systemic issues and hindering progress.

Benefits of Courageous Leadership

1. Building Trust: Leaders who openly address difficult truths build trust within their teams or communities. Transparency fosters an environment where individuals feel heard and respected, creating a foundation for collaboration and innovation.

2. Encouraging Innovation: Acknowledging uncomfortable realities is the first step towards finding innovative solutions. Courageous leaders create a culture that values creativity and problem-solving, unencumbered by the fear of reprisals.

3. Adaptability: Organizations led by individuals willing to confront difficult truths are inherently more adaptable. They can respond effectively to challenges, navigate change, and steer the course toward long-term success.

4. Crisis Management: In times of crisis, leaders who embrace difficult truths can provide clear, honest communication. This transparency is crucial for guiding teams through challenging circumstances and maintaining confidence in leadership.

5. Catalyzing Cultural Change: Courageous leaders have the power to transform organizational cultures. By normalizing open conversations about difficult truths, they set the stage for positive cultural shifts that endure over time.

Courageous Leadership Requires Our Direct Action

Dr. King’s Letter has one primary premise: The time for action is now. We must directly confront the challenges we face with courage. The reluctance to voice difficult truths is a pervasive challenge in our individual lives and broader societal contexts. However, the benefit of being a leader who embraces these truths far outweighs the discomfort of the moment. Courageous leadership, marked by a willingness to confront unpopular realities, is the linchpin for fostering trust, promoting innovation, and steering communities and organizations toward a resilient and sustainable future.

Perhaps the most provocative part about difficult truths is to whom they need addressed. It is not a difficult truth when a Republican lectures a Democrat about the size of government. A difficult truth is a critique of your own social group and your own way of life. It’s a truth that will get you in trouble because no one wants to hear it. It’s criticizing the supporters who can get you out of jail while you are unjustly sitting in a cell.

Existentially, the most difficult truths to confront are the lies we tell ourselves. It’s confronting your own bias. It’s researching the truths told by the other side of the political aisle. It’s acknowledging your business decisions do not meet your ethical standards. Maybe we all need to reflect deeply on the content of our own character.

The world is in desperate need of courageous leadership. We need to tell each other the hard truths that are getting in the way. Maybe we need the silence of a Birmingham jail cell to have a moment of clarity. Or maybe we can follow in the footsteps of the giants who came before us that paved the way.

I am thankful for the courageous leadership of Dr. King.

What is one courageous action you can take that speaks truth into a world increasingly filled with falsehood?

January 15, 2024 0

Five Effective Actions to Lead through Uncertainty

Several weeks ago, it was announced the division I work for will be acquired by another firm. I wrote several weeks ago about how maintaining realistic optimism throughout the process is key to moving forward for all involved. However, mindset alone is insufficient for a successful transition. Execution is needed to ensure our clients and employees are taken care of.

This is exceptionally challenging given the uncertainty and ambiguity our teams are experiencing. Execution requires definitive plans and engaged teams. But how can we as leaders provide the clarity needed to foster an effective working environment?

Taking these five actions below provide the best path to navigate through ambiguous and uncertain times.

1. Define Success

In ambiguous situations, decisions often need to be made with incomplete information. In spite of this, effective leadership rapidly moves to define what success will look like in a future state. This is the starting point to navigating through uncertainty.

Strong leaders employ strategic decision-making processes that involve gathering available data, consulting relevant stakeholders, and weighing risks. Emphasize calculated risks while being ready to adjust strategies based on evolving circumstances.

2. Communicate Known and Unknowns

Clear and transparent communication is paramount during uncertain times. Although all the desired information will not be available, leaders often have more concrete information than they realize. Ensuring the team is aware of what is known, what is unknown, and when to expect further definition brings as much clarity as possible into an opaque situation. Simple items such as timelines for future communications, project plans and governance structures allow employees to see that progress is being made.

Keeping the team informed about the situation, potential challenges, and any available information fosters trust and unity. Admit there are a lot of unanswered questions and that it’s ok to be uneasy about it. Embrace honesty, acknowledge uncertainties, and encourage open dialogue to ensure everyone is aligned and on the same page.

3. Engage with Your Team Personally

The best communication happens in a one-on-one setting. People will share more openly about their concerns and questions when asked directly in private. This feedback is invaluable for leaders to effectively gauge individual and team moral. Remember to continue to provide transparent communication and be prepared to answer difficult questions. Be optimistic about the future, but ensure your team members are able to freely express their thoughts, especially if they are not feeling the optimism as deeply as you are. Accept their thoughts without refuting them, as uncertainty can often come with downsides that should not be overlooked.

4. Provide Empathy and Support

During times of uncertainty, emotions can run high. While we want to emphasize the potential benefits of change, we also need to acknowledge the drawbacks and issues faced by our teams. Leaders need to demonstrate empathy and offer support to their team members. Be conscious of the challenges they might be facing, actively listen to their concerns, and provide avenues for support. It is also a time to recognize your peers and superiors are also going through challenging times. They are people too, so when you feel you have the capacity, reach out and provide empathy in all directions.

5. Cultivate Resilience

Building resilience within the team is crucial for navigating ambiguity. Encourage a growth mindset, emphasize learning from failures, and celebrate small wins. Fostering resilience helps individuals and the team as a whole bounce back stronger in the face of uncertainty. Methods to improve resilience focus on the personalization, permanence and pervasiveness of the perceived challenges according resilience theory. Ensuring the team views challenges as temporary and localized problems narrows the focus and allows team members to see problems as solvable.

Execution is Critical

Uncertain and ambiguous situations create incredibly difficult times for leaders. By defining success, communicating knowns and unknowns, connecting individually, providing empathy and cultivating resilience, leaders enable their teams to move forward through precarious times. Embracing these actions can foster an environment conducive to growth, innovation, and solidarity. Remember, while uncertainty may be daunting, it also presents opportunities for development and transformation when approached with the right mindset and actions.

I look forward to the uncertain opportunities that lie ahead of us.

January 6, 2024 1

The Power of Realistic Optimism and Resilience

This week, it was announced that the division I work for is being acquired by another firm. It’s a rollercoaster of emotions: concerns for my team and their futures, nostalgia of the good times we’ve had together, and hopefulness that the future is bright for both organizations and the people who work in them.

Corporate acquisitions often usher in a wave of uncertainty, stirring both excitement and apprehension among employees. The air becomes thick with questions about job security, company culture shifts, and the overall impact on individual roles. In the midst of such transformative times, we must hold attitudes of realistic optimism and resilience which emerge as beacons of strength, guiding us and our teams through the transition.

Understanding Realistic Optimism

Realistic optimism isn’t merely about wearing rose-tinted glasses; it’s a balanced approach grounded in acknowledging the challenges we face, while maintaining a positive outlook. It’s recognizing the hurdles ahead but also believing in our ability to navigate them successfully. During an acquisition, this mindset becomes a vital asset. We can acknowledge the uncertainties without succumbing to fear, fostering a sense of hope and possibility amidst change.

Embracing Resilience

Resilience is the backbone that will sustain us and our teams during this tumultuous time. It’s the ability to adapt, bounce back from setbacks, and thrive despite adversity. In a corporate acquisition, resilience manifests as adaptability. We must remain flexible, open to change, and willing to learn new systems and processes. It’s the capacity to pivot swiftly, embracing the evolving landscape with determination and tenacity.

Strategies for Cultivating Realistic Optimism and Resilience

Open Communication: Transparent communication from leadership regarding the acquisition’s goals, potential changes, and timelines is paramount. Clear information reduces anxiety and helps us understand our roles in the transition.
Focus on Opportunities: Encourage your team to focus on the opportunities that come with change. This could mean exploring new skill sets, networking with new colleagues, or contributing fresh ideas to the evolving company vision.
Support and Collaboration: Foster a culture of support and collaboration. Encourage your team to work together, leveraging each other’s strengths to navigate challenges collectively.
Self-Care: Acknowledge the stress that accompanies this significant change. Encourage self-care practices for everyone, such as mindfulness, regular breaks, taking PTO and maintaining a work-life balance.

The Intersection of Realistic Optimism and Resilience

In the intersection of realistic optimism and resilience lies a potent mindset that propels us forward during this transition. It’s about acknowledging the realities, harnessing a positive outlook, and demonstrating unwavering strength in the face of change.

As the acquisition unfolds, those who embrace these principles find themselves not just surviving but thriving. They become torchbearers, inspiring others with their adaptability, courage, and commitment to growth. Ultimately, in the heart of uncertainty, realistic optimism and resilience become guiding lights illuminating the path to a brighter, more promising future for all involved.

I will be forever grateful for the colleagues, mentors and friends I have gained. I know there is a tall mountain ahead of us in this transition, and that we don’t know what the other side of the mountain looks like. But I also know we have a great team to climb with. I know we have overcome challenges in the past.

If we take care of ourselves and each other, we will carry the community we have built to the other side of the mountain and thrive on the opportunities we find there.

December 16, 2023 1

The Upside of Globalism

I recently returned from New Delhi, where I spent two weeks getting to know six new members of my team. They were all eager to take on the work, to learn, to grow, and to help the enterprise I work for succeed. The world becomes stronger when we build meaningful, lasting relationships across cultures. International business has been vilified in recent times, but history demonstrates that lasting peace and prosperity belongs to those who build partnerships that reach across the globe.

Would you believe that global poverty rates have been cut in half since the year 2000, that malaria outbreaks are being thwarted by mosquito nets, or that the literacy rate has went from 42% in 1960 to 86% in 2015? These statistics are all true, although you won’t hear about them often by tuning into the news. Globalism has been slowly increasing the welfare of humanity.

This is not to say that globalism does not have its difficulties or frustrations, but the solution to these problems is not to create a cloister of separation from the rest of the world. Doing so will inevitably leave you behind. The solution is leaning into the challenges that globalism creates, building fair trade policies, protecting the interests of workers and entrepreneurs alike and having honest conversations between citizens and governments.

There are six intelligent and enthusiastic people who work on my team halfway around the world. The opportunities they have been given due to globalism is slowly modernizing India. The same is happening in China, Africa and Latin America. The most powerful person is not often the biggest or strongest or even the smartest. The most powerful person is the one with the most friends. When we reach out and form relationships, we become more understanding, dynamic and interesting people. Global business allows us to broaden our relationships, build partnerships, and change the world for the better.

After experiencing India, I am more thankful than ever to have been born in the United States of America. I am also more confident than ever that the country I call home is stronger, more prosperous and more enlightened when it forges builds partnerships with the people beyond the artificial borders we have created. We have only one world to live on. The quality of that life depends on our ability to work together.

February 10, 2019 0

Category: Business